THE major growth in population in Grampian over the past 20 years, due
mainly to an influx of people with the North Sea oil and gas industry,
is not likely to continue.
The latest survey of population, employment, and housing, which goes
before the region's economic development and planning committee
tomorrow, says that a small net loss of people is expected after 1996.
Between 1991 and 2006 the region's population is forecast to grow by
15,000 to 525,500, an increase of 3% with almost all the growth being in
the Aberdeen area. This rate is much less than the increase of 33,000,
or 7%, over the past 10 years.
The impact of oil related developments led to a net migration from the
region in the 1960s changing to a net immigration in the 1970s.
Apart from 1987-88 when a downturn in oil-related activity, following
the collapse of the oil price, led to people leaving the area, the past
few years have seen a return to net immigration, although not to the
levels experienced in the mid 1970s.
''Because more and more of the existing population will be available
to take up jobs, in-migration is expected to fall gradually and as a
result beyond 1996 net out-migration is predicted, though not on the
scale it was in the pre-oil era,'' say the planners.
''The fact that total jobs are declining, and also that more
opportunities may exist elsewhere as the country moves out of recession,
further supports this assumption.''
However, the loss is likely to be counterbalanced by growth due to
natural increase, with births exceeding deaths.
The survey predicts that overall numbers of people of working age will
increase which, when compared with a smaller number of resident jobs,
implies an increase in the unemployment rate from the current low figure
of 4.6%.
The number of retired people is set to increase in the period
1991-2006, placing additional requirements on services for the elderly.
The oil industry will continue to be an important employer in the
region although it will fall to 43,000 in 2006, a figure 5000 lower than
that forecast in the 1991 survey.
However, the planners say that the gradual decline in numbers up to
2006 will not be felt fully in the region as many of the job losses
relate to offshore workers, who do not live in Grampian.
A further 31,000 houses are likely to be required in the region over
the 15-year period.
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