THE major growth in population in Grampian over the past 20 years, due

mainly to an influx of people with the North Sea oil and gas industry,

is not likely to continue.

The latest survey of population, employment, and housing, which goes

before the region's economic development and planning committee

tomorrow, says that a small net loss of people is expected after 1996.

Between 1991 and 2006 the region's population is forecast to grow by

15,000 to 525,500, an increase of 3% with almost all the growth being in

the Aberdeen area. This rate is much less than the increase of 33,000,

or 7%, over the past 10 years.

The impact of oil related developments led to a net migration from the

region in the 1960s changing to a net immigration in the 1970s.

Apart from 1987-88 when a downturn in oil-related activity, following

the collapse of the oil price, led to people leaving the area, the past

few years have seen a return to net immigration, although not to the

levels experienced in the mid 1970s.

''Because more and more of the existing population will be available

to take up jobs, in-migration is expected to fall gradually and as a

result beyond 1996 net out-migration is predicted, though not on the

scale it was in the pre-oil era,'' say the planners.

''The fact that total jobs are declining, and also that more

opportunities may exist elsewhere as the country moves out of recession,

further supports this assumption.''

However, the loss is likely to be counterbalanced by growth due to

natural increase, with births exceeding deaths.

The survey predicts that overall numbers of people of working age will

increase which, when compared with a smaller number of resident jobs,

implies an increase in the unemployment rate from the current low figure

of 4.6%.

The number of retired people is set to increase in the period

1991-2006, placing additional requirements on services for the elderly.

The oil industry will continue to be an important employer in the

region although it will fall to 43,000 in 2006, a figure 5000 lower than

that forecast in the 1991 survey.

However, the planners say that the gradual decline in numbers up to

2006 will not be felt fully in the region as many of the job losses

relate to offshore workers, who do not live in Grampian.

A further 31,000 houses are likely to be required in the region over

the 15-year period.