MARTIN Pipe has taken the Welsh Grand National on five of its past seven runnings and has a strong hand with which to win again today.
Indian Tracker must be rated his trump card. He put in a creditable second in the Rehearsal Chase here, with Banjo third and worse off at today's weights. The first two home in that event have produced half the winners in the past 10 runnings of today's race.
This year, the Rehearsal Chase looks an ever more valuable pointer as the winner, See More Business, went on to triumph yesterday at Kempton.
I backed Samlee when he won the Beeches Chase and I would be pleased to see him complete the hat trick, but there may be too much mud to see him at his best today.
A bigger danger could be Bells Life, who has won four times on heavy or soft going and is a Chepstow specialist.
He ran well on his seasonal debut to finish only a couple of lengths adrift of Challenger Du Luc at Cheltenham, and, on the evidence of yesterday's King George VI Chase, that should make him the one for the forecast.
Martin Pipe can make it a double with Rainwatch in the Finale Junior Hurdle. This smart recruit to hurdling ran away from the field on his debut at the Hennessy meeting.
Kilbride Lad and Borazon were both well behind and are no better in today. Rainwatch was a decent performer on the Flat who won on the soft at Haydock and should not be troubled by today's going.
Sad Mad Bad is lucky to be unbeaten as he had nothing in hand at Newcastle against City Hall who subsequently was unimpressive.
Virtuoso takes too big a step up in grade to be backed with confidence, but has twice beaten large fields and could be in at the finish.
Kempton's Christmas Hurdle features a clash between the two top novices of last season in Shadow Leader and Sanmartino.
Shadow Leader remains un- beaten after four outings, including a 10-length win at the Festival.
Sanmartino's only defeat in eight efforts came in the Championship itself. For such an inexperienced horse, he put up a sterling performance to hold off Pridwell for sixth place. David Nicholson brought him back for the start of the season and Sanmartino has had three wins this term, most recently in muddy conditions when beating I'm Supposin at Newbury.
Sanmartino has excellent form on soft going and is preferred.
Shadow Leader has yet to run on ground as soft as today and I'm Supposin disappointed at Ascot last week where he seemed unable to cope with testing conditions.
Super Tactics has everything going for him in the Pertemps Chase.
Trainer Robert Alner had the first two home in the Betterware Cup last week, while jockey Andy Thornton is at the top of his game with two winners yesterday, including the big race.
The horse has already won four times at Kempton and all but one of his rivals has serious question marks against them.
Edredon Bleu is the exception as he will like the ground and should go well, but Super Tactics still looks the bet of the day.
Ask Tom fulfilled all expectation and defied his lack of recent form to beat Viking Flagship in the Tingle Creek last month.
Tom Tate's stable star is well suited by a galloping track and can confirm the placings when the two meet again in Wetherby's Castleford Chase.
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