OVER confident people can fool others into believing they are more talented than they actually are, a study has found.

These ‘self-deceived’ individuals could be more likely to get promotions and reach influential positions in banks and other organisations. And these people are more likely to overestimate other people’s abilities and take greater risks, possibly creating problems for their organisations.

The study by researchers from Newcastle and Exeter Universities, also found that those who are under confident in their own abilities are viewed as less able by their colleagues.

The findings, published in PLOS ONE, are the first time a link has been found between a person’s view of their own ability and how others see their abilities, and could partially explain financial collapses and other disasters.

Researchers asked 72 students to rate their own ability and the ability of their peers after the first day of their course. Of those, 32 students (about 45 per cent) were under confident in their ability as compared to their final mark, 29 students (40 per cent) were overconfident and 11 students (15 per cent) were accurate in their assessments of their own ability.

There was a positive correlation between the grades students predicted for themselves and the grades others predicted for them. In other words students who predicted higher grades for themselves were predicted to have higher grades by others, irrespective of their actual final score. The same applied to those who were under confident.

The task was repeated when the students knew each other better and the findings remained the same. Those who were over confident were over rated by others.

Study author Dr Vivek Nityananda, research associate at Newcastle University, said: “These findings suggest that people don’t always reward the most accomplished individual but rather the most self-deceived.”