TALKING HORSES: Cheltenham picture becomes clearer after busy winter programme

CHAMPION HURDLE

He might not have beaten a great deal, but Faugheen still produced the stand-out performance of the festive period as he cruised to victory in Kempton’s Christmas Hurdle on Boxing Day.

Last year’s Neptune winner remains unbeaten in eight races, and it’s unlikely that either of this season’s hurdle wins have even come close to revealing the depth of his talents.

He’s a best-priced 5-4 with Paddy Power though, and given that price is unlikely to be any shorter on the day, if you want to back him, you might as well wait until the Festival.

The New One was nowhere near as impressive as he battled past Bertimont last weekend, but the bottomless ground can perhaps explain the tardy jumping that almost saw Nigel Twiston-Davies’ stable star fail to justify odds of 1-6. He’ll surely be better back at Cheltenham.

Over in Ireland, Hurricane Fly has disposed of last year’s Champion Hurdler, Jezki, in successive races, with the pair set to re-oppose in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown this weekend. Jezki is a completely different horse in the spring, and still looks the likelier rival to Faugheen, but perhaps Hurricane Fly is not quite the spent force he appeared while toiling at Cheltenham last March.

QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE

The king is back – but is he anywhere near as good as he used to be? Sprinter Sacre’s comeback run at Ascot last weekend split opinion down the middle, with some observers noting how easily he cruised through the race, only to drop away when his lack of fitness told, while others highlighted his failure to lay a glove on Dodging Bullets as proof of his decline.

A personal opinion is that Sprinter Sacre’s performance was similar to the one Big Buck’s produced when he came back from a lengthy lay-off last winter. And we all know how that turned out when Big Buck’s got to Cheltenham.

With the bookmakers having pushed Sprinter Sacre out to 3-1, the Champion Chase has a wide open look to it, particularly as last year’s winner, Sire De Grugy, has had injury problems of his own. He returns at Newbury on Saturday, and we should know a fair bit more after that.

Dodging Bullets is clearly a much-improved horse having only finished fourth in last year’s Arkle, and with Paul Nicholls seemingly having worked his magic again, the Tingle Creek winner has to be a live contender in two months’ time.

There’s a chance there could be a forgotten horse in the field in the shape of Champagne Fever though. A dual Festival winner, who also finished second in the Arkle, Willie Mullins’ chaser failed to stay in the King George and fell at the last over two-and-a-half miles at Thurles last time out. He’s not certain to run in the Champion Chase, but if he does, he’s surely better than the 8-1 that’s currently available.

WORLD HURDLE

Of the four established Championship races, the World Hurdle is the one that still has a wide-open look to it. As a result, it currently makes the most ante-post appeal.

Last year’s winner, More Of That, was so impressive as he powered up the Cheltenham hill, he looked like dominating the staying hurdle division for years to come. He still might, but his comeback run at Newbury was deeply unsatisfactory and medical investigations resulted in a wind operation. With that in mind, if you’re going to back him as a short-priced favourite, you’re taking a lot on trust.

Having said that, though, one of the main things in More Of That’s favour is that there isn’t a lot else in the race. Last year’s runner-up, Annie Power, is entered, but looks much more likely to run in the Mares’ Hurdle.

Lieutenant Colonel boasts the best Irish form on offer, having won over three miles at Leopardstown in December, but the race was somewhat weak.

Saphir Du Rheu is of interest after two heavy falls put pay to his chasing career, with Nicholls’ decision to switch him back to hurdling evoking obvious parallels with Big Buck’s. Nicholls is also likely to run Zarkandar, but you’d have to be worried by the way he failed to see out December’s Long Walk Hurdle.

Rock On Ruby has never run over three miles, so the extent of his stamina is open to debate. The former Champion Hurdler loves Cheltenham though, and was hardly stopping when he claimed back-to-back two-and-a-half mile victories on the track this winter. At 12-1, he looks a cracking each-way bet.

GOLD CUP

If the Gold Cup was run anywhere other than Cheltenham, Silviniaco Conti would be an odds-on favourite. Having already claimed the Betfair Chase, he trounced a top-class field to win his second King George in fine style on Boxing Day.

On the ratings, he’s the best staying chaser in Britain or Ireland by a distance, but his three previous runs at Cheltenham have all seen him fail to make the top two. Jumping two out in last year’s Gold Cup, he looked to have the race at his mercy, but he faded badly and eventually finished fourth.

The better the ground, the more likely he is to make it up the Cheltenham hill, so given that he’s currently at short at 3-1, if you want to back him, you might as well wait until the day to be able to assess underfoot conditions.

Of the horses that finished behind him in the King George, Dynaste, Al Ferof, Champagne Fever and Cue Card could all swerve the Gold Cup. Even if they didn’t, it’s hard to see any of them overturning the form.

The other big winter pointer was provided by the Lexus Chase in Ireland, with the winner, Road To Riches, contracting to 8-1 second favourite for the Gold Cup. The Lexus was a messy affair though, with last year’s Gold Cup winner, Lord Windermere, unable to get involved. He’ll be a completely different horse come Cheltenham.

Of the younger protagonists, Holywell could get a pipe opener over hurdles this weekend, while Many Clouds hasn’t been out since winning the Hennessey. Both could feature in the Gold Cup shake-up.

NORTHERN HORSES

John Quinn boasts one Festival victory courtesy of Countrywide Flame, and the Malton handler will head to Cheltenham with strong hopes of adding to his tally as he prepares to launch Aurore D’Estruval into the Mares’ Hurdle.

The five-year-old claimed this month’s 32Red.com Mares’ Hurdle at Sandown despite encountering ground that resembled a bog, having previously finished an impressive second behind Irving in the Fighting Fifth.

Annie Power will go off an odds-on favourite if she takes the mares’ route in March, but Aurore D’Estruval looks certain to push her all the way and should be an excellent each-way bet in a race that traditionally lacks depth.

Norton’s Malcolm Jefferson missed out on a winner by half-a-length last year when Attaglance controversially failed to get up in the Rewards4Racing Novices’ Chase, and the nine-year-old, who is due to run in Saturday’s Skybet Chase at Doncaster, will hope to play a leading hand in one of the Festival handicaps. Jefferson is also likely to saddle Cape Tribulation on the opening day.