TOTAL UK sheep meat production for 2014 is forecast to rise four per cent to 302,000 tonnes – the highest since 2009.

Export forecasts represent just over 37 per cent of production, almost four per cent higher than last year as world demand remains good.

Imports are expected to remain below 2013 levels as supplies, particularly in New Zealand, are expected to tighten.

The Eblex forecasts are based on a breeding flock of 14.5 million head in December 2013, two per cent higher than in 2012.

Paul Heyhoe, Eblex senior analyst, expects it to grow to 17.7m head in 2015 as seasonal conditions and markets have improved during the past 12 months, which is expected to boost producer confidence.

He said: “It is also expected that, after more favourable weather for most of 2013- 2014, lambing rates will improve to a national average of more than 122 per cent for 2014, compared to about 117 per cent in 2013.

“Consequently, the lamb kill in 2014 is forecast to be up five per cent year on year at 13.06m head, despite being down in the first part of the year.

“If conditions remain favourable, the expectation is for further uplift in 2015.”

Lamb weights are expected to remain slightly higher for the rest of 2014, with broadly average weights forecast for 2015.

Adult sheep slaughterings in 2013 were 12 per cent higher than the 2.07m head in 2012.

The current projection is for this to slow to 1.88m head this year.