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THE scale of the change in the housing market was underlined this week by a series of statistical announcement which, taken together, amount to a clearly defined, no-argument, decline in the housing market.

This was the cue for much hand-wringing and foreboding.

There is now a widespread fear that this is the beginning of something more than what is being described as a correction in the market, that it will lead to a catastrophic collapse in prices, widespread negative equity, mortgage defaults and a compound effect on the rest of the economy.

It sounds very scary but we need to keep it all in perspective.

What we are witnessing is the end of the longest boom in property prices in living memory.

Some will remember a time when property prices went up and down, a time when getting a mortgage wasn't easier than buying a tin of beans, and when you always had to have a deposit before any lender would even consider offering a loan.

Returning to those times - often considered the bad old days when prices were on their seeming inexorable ascent - may not be such a disaster long term. A short period of retrenchment may help us to understand what represents real value in property rather than over-hyped dreams fed by speculative building and development.

A decline in prices of up to ten per cent over a year, and another five per cent the year after, would not be a disaster overall. Very painful for a few perhaps, but the economy would benefit from our obsession with property being dampened down.

In any event, a property downturn will not last very long. The laws of property supply and demand, unique to Britain, will reassert themselves.

So, all is not lost. Our national obsession has been shaken - hard - and that's not such a bad thing.

1:24pm Friday 11th April 2008

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